Avs hope to continue dominance of Blues

Hockey Betting Lines

03/16/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Strong play on the road this season has kept the St. Louis Blues in contention for a postseason berth. The club hasn't been able to achieve the same success at home, however, and it's had all kinds of trouble when facing the Colorado Avalanche during this 2009-10 campaign.

Colorado will try for a season sweep of the Blues when the Northeast Division contenders head to the Scottrade Center this evening for a key Western Conference clash.

St. Louis returns home after performing well on an important six-game road trip to start out the team's post-Olympic break schedule. The Blues finished 4-2-0 on the swing, although they came up short against Minnesota in Sunday's finale.

The Wild scored three unanswered goals in the first period en route to a 4-2 triumph, which left St. Louis at a still-impressive 20-11-4 as the visitor this season.

The Blues are just 12-16-5 as the home team, however, but did win its last three tests at the Scottrade Center prior to the league's hiatus for the Olympics.

St. Louis, which plays eight of its final 14 regular-season games on home ice, will need to improve upon that lackluster record in order to achieve a second straight playoff appearance. The Blues enter tonight's tilt in 10th place in the West and seven points behind rival Detroit for the conference's eighth and final postseason slot.

"We're not gaining ground, everyone around us is winning," said Blues forward Keith Tkachuk after Sunday's loss. "This really hurts, no question about it. Some of the teams won [Sunday] too, so it's frustrating. We have to go on a serious run to get into the playoffs."

St. Louis could also use a better performance out of No. 1 goaltender Chris Mason than he gave against the Wild. The usually-steady backstop was yanked after allowing three goals on only seven shots in the opening period.

Mason has also struggled mightily when facing the Avalanche this season, with the veteran netminder having given up a whopping 13 goals (a 7.23 GAA) in the Blues' three defeats to Colorado in 2009-10. In the most recent meeting between the teams, Mason stopped just 11-of-15 chances before exiting early in the second period of a 7-3 loss in Denver on March 6.

Chris Stewart netted his first career hat trick and added an assist in that contest, and the Avs forward came up with the go-ahead goal late in the second period of his team's 5-3 triumph at Dallas on Sunday. The win was the second in a row for Colorado, which currently occupies the No. 6 spot in the West and trails first-place Vancouver by five points in the Northwest Division race.

Paul Stastny scored a pair of goals in Sunday's victory and has amassed 12 points (4 goals, 8 assists) over a seven-game point streak. Teammate Peter Mueller, acquired in a trade-deadline deal with Phoenix on March 3, has also notched a point in seven straight outings and has racked up two goals and six assists over his first six games with the Avalanche.

Goaltender Craig Anderson made a big contribution as well to Sunday's win, matching a career-high with 48 saves on the afternoon. The offseason pickup is 2-0-0 with a 2.50 goals against average in two starts versus St. Louis earlier this season, but wasn't between the pipes for Colorado's 4-0 blanking of the Blues at the Scottrade Center on December 7. Backup Peter Budaj got the call in that one and turned aside all 35 shots he faced.

In injury news for the Avalanche, forwards Cody McLeod and Stephane Yelle each exited Sunday's win in the first period after sustaining leg injuries and are questionable to play tonight.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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