Howard, Phillies rally past winless Astros

Baseball Betting Lines

04/10/2010 - Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Howard belted the go-ahead two-run homer in the seventh inning, leading the hot-hitting Philadelphia Phillies to a 9-6 decision over the winless Houston Astros.

Shane Victorino also had a two-run homer and three RBI, and Jayson Werth drove in three runs for the Phillies, who have grabbed the opening two contests of this three-game set. It also assured the Phillies of winning a series at Minute Maid Park for the first time since 2006, when they swept a three-game set, September 15-17.

The Phillies have double-digit hits in each of their first five games, tying the club record from 1926. They have 63 hits thus far this season.

It was an up-and-down contest for Phillies starter Jamie Moyer (1-0), who was charged with nine hits and five runs over six innings. The 47-year-old Moyer, who started his 24th major league season, retired the first eight batters he faced before seeing eight straight men reach base in the third when Houston scored five times to grab its first lead of the season.

The Phillies, though, rallied and won for the fourth time, while preventing Houston manager Brad Mills from posting his first victory.

Jason Michaels had a two-run homer and ended with three RBI, while Hunter Pence also drilled a two-run shot for Houston. The Astros are 0-5 for the first time since 1983, when they started the season at 0-9. Houston finished that season 85-77.

Felipe Paulino gave up four hits and four runs over five innings in the start for the Astros.

Brandon Lyon (0-1) retired the first two batters of the seventh inning, but Chase Utley walked. Howard then smashed a 2-1 pitch 434 feet, off the facade beyond the wall in left-center field for his third homer of the season and a 6-5 Phillies lead.

Werth and Raul Ibanez singled to put runners at the corners, and Victorino made it 7-5 with an RBI ground single to right field.

Victorino homered to right with Werth on base in the eighth. The hit came off Matt Lindstrom.

Michaels singled in Michael Bourn in the bottom of the ninth.

Howard's first time up, leading off the second inning, he hit a ball off the wall in left. The ball caromed off the shoulder of Carlos Lee and Howard ended up with a triple. Werth followed with a sacrifice fly to left-center.

The Phillies tacked on three more runs in the next inning. Howard walked on a high and outside pitch with the bases full and two outs. Werth then doubled to left field.

Moyer was cruising until the third when Paulino doubled to start Houston's big parade to the plate. Michaels then homered to left on a first pitch. Jeff Keppinger walked on four pitches and Pence hammered a ball over the wall in left to tie the game. Singles from Lee, Pedro Feliz and Chris Johnson loaded the bases, and Tommy Manzella hit a ball on a short-hop off the glove of third baseman Placido Polanco, giving Houston a 5-4 edge.

Manzella flied out in the fifth, leaving runners at the corners.

Game Notes

Each team had 11 hits...This was the 100th start in a Phillies uniform for Moyer, who became just the eighth starting pitcher in MLB history to start a game in four different decades. The seven previous pitchers to do so were Mike Morgan (1978-2001), Nolan Ryan (1966-1993), Jerry Reuss (1969-1990), Jim Kaat (1959-1982), Early Wynn (1939-1963), Bobo Newsom (1929-1953) and Jack Quinn (1909-1931)...Sunday will mark the battle of the Roys as Roy Halladay pitches for the Phillies against Roy Oswalt...The teams wore uniforms similar to those during the 1965 season...Pence has nine homers and 19 RBI in 19 career games against the Phillies.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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