Travers gets evenly matched field of 12

Horseracing Betting Lines

08/20/2008 - Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A dozen evenly matched three-year-olds have been entered in Saturday's $1 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Course, led by Jim Dandy Stakes winner Macho Again and Jim Dandy runner-up Pyro.

The "Mid-Summer Derby" is a 1 1/4 mile race with all 12 starters carrying 126 pounds.

Despite winning the Jim Dandy at Saratoga, Macho Again is only fourth in the morning line at 6-1. He will again be ridden by Julien Leparoux from post five. The gray colt will try to duplicate the Jim Dandy-Travers double that Street Sense accomplished last year.

Trained by Dallas Stewart, Macho Again won the Derby Trial and was second to Big Brown in the Preakness Stakes. In his career, the three-year-old has earned $673,761 with four wins in 11 starts.

Assuming the morning-line favorite's position at just 7-2 is Pyro. The colt, trained by Steve Asmussen, will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan from post 11.

"He had a pretty strong race in the Jim Dandy," said Asmussen, "and trying to get two good races out of a horse here can be pretty tricky."

Pyro established himself early this year as a favorite for the Kentucky Derby. He won the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby, both at the Fair Grounds, then failed in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on a synthetic track.

After an eighth-place finish in the Run for the Roses, Pyro won the Northern Dancer at Churchill Downs leading into the Jim Dandy. In his career he has won four of 10 starts for $1,274,063.

Lightly raced Harlem Rocker is the 4-1 second choice in the program for trainer Todd Pletcher. The gray colt will break from post eight with Eibar Coa in the saddle.

"Physically, he has been a very nice individual," Pletcher noted. "He has gotten bigger and stronger as a three-year-old. The biggest change in him is that he's become much more of a work horse. He's a good-looking horse. I don't think we've seen the full potential of him yet. The Travers will be interesting."

Harlem Rocker is a Canadian-bred who is coming off a win in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie, the second jewel in Canada's Triple Crown. Owned by Frank Stronach, the colt won the Withers at Aqueduct in April.

"He beat a quality horse in J Be K," Pletcher said about the Withers victory. "He beat him convincingly going a mile. I think that race stamped his quality because of J Be K's accomplishments (he won the Woody Stephens at Belmont Park). I think the interesting thing (about the Travers) will be the 1 1/4 miles. He has never gone that far, but he did run well at a 1 3/16 miles, and he acted like he had more to give that day."

Harlem Rocker has earned $445,799 with four wins in five lifetime starts.

The 5-1 third pick is newcomer Mambo in Seattle. The colt won a restricted stakes race at Saratoga last month in his first added-money start. He will start from post nine with jockey Robby Albarado.

Mambo in Seattle has won four of his seven career starts with $163,241 in earnings.

Here is the complete field in post position order for the 139th Travers: Tale of Ekati, Edgar Prado 20-1; Colonel John, Garrett Gomez 8-1; Da' Tara, Alan Garcia 8-1; Tizbig, Cornelio Velasquez 30-1; Macho Again, Julien Leparoux 6-1; Cool Coal Man, John Velazquez 15-1; Amped, Jorge Chavez 30-1; Harlem Rocker, Eibar Coa 4-1; Mambo in Seattle, Robby Albarado 5-1; Tres Borrachos, Tyler Baze 15-1; Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan 7-2 and Court Vision, Kent Desormeaux 12-1.

The Travers will be televised on ESPN with a post-time of 5:45 p.m. (et).

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Betting Football

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.